The True Market- Mexico Beach FL to Cape San Blas Real Estate: 07/01/2024

I am happy to report that the popularity of this area remains strong overall, but is seeing a definite shift from an extreme seller’s market a few years ago to more of a moderate buyer’s market. The crowds were possibly the largest ever seen during the 4^th of July and more and more people continue to want to live or own a 2^nd home in the area. The market is not on fire by any means, but there remains a steady amount of purchasers and positive buzz for the area. I have heard people talking about how much is for sale, and there is more available than we’ve seen in years. Combine sales signs with vacation rental signs and what seems like a million political signs for local elections, and there’s almost a sign in every yard. Presidential election years are always a cause of some buyer jitters. Many buyers are either on the fence or have paused their searches hoping for interest rates to come down. This has probably been the biggest factor in slowing down the market. The stats below for the last 4 years show the shift from a surplus of buyers to more sellers than buyers in '24.

Sales Volume vs. Active Listings

	Sales 1/1-6/30	Active Listings 7/1
2021	780	249
2022	533	376
2023	377	407
2024	332	644

There are still a pretty large number of people buying and 322 sales for the first half of the year from Mexico Beach to Cape San Blas/Indian Pass isn’t a historically low number. (I looked back 15 years ago to the recession days and there were 90 sales for reference in '09 and 92 in '08) The sales pace is slightly down from last year and significantly down from '21 and '22 when almost everything sold saw a bidding war with 3 times more buyers than sellers. There are also these 79 properties under contract currently. Houses remain more popular than vacant lots with 200 of the 322 sales being for homes. (DR Horton remains the big player with 52 of the 200 home sales being new Horton sales. These homes have offered buyers a lot of bang for their buck, particularly in the $300K to $500K range. ) Cash buyers remain a huge part of the market with 173 buyers paying cash. We are also seeing more seller financing and had 11 of those, often with the sellers offering lower interest rates than current bank rates to entice a buyer. Buyers have finally gotten some negotiating power, and sellers are having to stand out to sell in this market. Properties either need to have features that make them uniquely desirable or they’ll have to stand out by outpricing their competition. Below are the average home selling prices for the first half of the last 4 years. The Mexico Beach market includes St. Joe Beach and WindMark and Cape San Blas includes Indian Pass. These markets have seen some declines from end of 2023 values when Mexico Beach was over $610K and the Cape at $1,129,000. Port St Joe saw an increase from last year's average of $374,217.

Average Sold Prices - January 1 through June 30 - Residential Homes

	Port St Joe	Mexico Beach	Cape San Blas
2021	$286,327	$385,540	$754,091
2022	$332,924	$601,250	$1,117,134
2023	$354,847	$591,008	$993,105
2024	$393,648	$594,888	$1,075,892

98 Real Estate Group finished the first half of '24 as the #1 producing company out of 82 brokerages on our MLS which spans from Mexico Beach to Carrabelle. We are #1 again for the Mexico Beach to WindMark Market for which we’ve finished first for 11 years in a row. We are also #1 in North Gulf County, and are also performing well in Port St Joe and Cape San Blas/Indian Pass. We have a good diverse team of 19 agents all working hard in different aspects of the market.

The retail and restaurant scene in Port St Joe keeps getting better and better with new retail and restaurants continuing to open up. Port St. Joe is thriving from a commercial aspect with lots of options for locals and tourists. Mexico Beach is finally getting some commercial going with Toucan’s starting back this spring and hoping to be open late '25. There is also a 2^nd sit down restaurant (Forgotten Coast Brewery Co) that opened about a month ago that has been very good. A t-shirt/souvenir shop is under construction on the corner of 40^th Street, and we are making good progress on getting a new grocery store next to Mango Marley’s in the Mexico Beach Shopping Center. It won't be huge, but larger than Gulf Foods that was destroyed in Hurricane Michael. The lack of a grocery store has been the top complaint from visitors we've talked to. (We still need more restaurants and the pier which is still at least a year out in permitting, but MB is going in the right direction) Politics have settled down some in Mexico Beach since the mayor was recalled in April. City Council gave a unanimous preliminary approval for the grocery store on July 9th.

The most common reason that I've seen sellers selling is related to the vacation rental market. I've heard a combination of homes not performing as well as they hoped or not realizing how much work it can be maintaining a beach property. Many homes were bought based off all time high rental numbers in Covid times. They hoped these would continue to rise but instead have seen a settling back to good, but not record rental returns. There are home segments like gulf front single family homes with pools and amenities that are seeing record years in 2024 while most more common condos and townhouses are seeing slight declines. Higher taxes and insurance and not using a home as much as they hoped are the main reasons for sellers selling. Horton is also constantly building new homes and are a factor in keeping the inventory on the higher side with 37 homes currently for sale. They are actively looking for new developments in Mexico Beach and Gulf County and remain very bullish on the area.

Available Inventory - as of July 9, 2024

Homes

Lots

MB / WMB	PSJ	CSB	MB / WMB	PSJ	CSB
166	89	138	109	36	119

I had fun coaching the 98 Real Estate Group t-ball team pictured above. The 98 Team also helped put on the Gollywhopper fishing tournament again in Mexico Beach that was huge success in June. Don't forget the MBARA Kingfish Tournament on July 27. My forecast for the future is that we are going to continue on the same trend we are on until interest rates come down significantly. We are seeing loans in the 7-8% range now and need them in the 5-6% range to bring enough buyers back in to shift back to a seller's market. I think you'll see cash buyers getting some nice discounts this offseason from sellers that are ready to sell.