Spring Market Recap - Mexico Beach to Cape San Blas, FL

It's the busiest start to Spring I've seen in my 11 years of selling real estate at the beach.  The "off season" was steady, but it's been a different market since Valentine's Day weekend.  That was also President's Day and lots of people had Monday off and decided to come to the beach to look at property over their 3 day weekend.  I had a couple of listings shown over 10 times during those 3 days.  The market has been extremely busy since then with buyers that are wanting to purchase before summer.  Many of the buyers I'm selling to right now have looked for years.  They are now pulling the trigger because they feel prices are going to rise at an accelerated rate by this Summer.  There were as many or more buyers in March of this year as there usually are during our peak season of June and July.  There were 162 closings in the first 3 months of the year vs 118  for the same time period last year! That's a huge increase from a great 2014 which had the most sales of any year since 2005.    As of 4/9, there are an additional 119 properties under contract from Mexico Beach to Cape San Blas/Indian Pass.

 

We are selling more than our share, and it has been an exciting year to be a Realtor. I've never had over 20 properties under contract at one time.  As of 3/6, I had 29 properties under contract before closing a property 5 days in a row.  For whatever combination of reasons, it's a fact that there are lots of people wanting to buy in our area.  March was one of my best months in my career, and 98 Real Estate Group was the top performing company in Gulf County and Mexico Beach with over $5,000,000 closed on MLS production.   

 

It's the first year when there are many definitive examples of buyers paying considerably more than they were just last Fall.  After 2-3 years of small price increases, 2015 is on track to see much larger gains.  The condo and townhouse market has been on fire in Mexico Beach.  Here's an example of how prices are trending.  Let's take an average 2BR townhouse or condo in a newer project with at least some gulf view.  These properties sold for as much as $400K-$450K in 2005 and dropped all the way down to the $150K-$170K range 3-5 years ago.  Last year you could have bought one of these in the $190K-$220K range and had 10 to choose from.  This year, these same properties are already closing in the $235-$255K range.  The buyers that are paying these higher prices feel lucky, because there is almost nothing comparable left on the market.    One of the groups of buyers I worked with during the President's Day weekend really like the Paradise Shores condos.  They had looked at the units last year and decided that it was the project for them.  There were 5 different condos available and there hadn't been a sale in the building for over 7 months.  They negotiated and got one under contract the following week.  That got a number of other buyers off the fence and all 5 went under contract in a matter of days.  There currently isn't a single available unit for sale in Paradise Shores, The Club, Palmetto Plantation, Tranquil Harbor, Oceanside Village, or Sea Pines.  There is only 1 unit for sale in The Palms, 1 condo at The Villas, 1 at The Vue, 1 condo and 1 cottage at Waterside Village, 2 condos at Summerhouse, and 2 condos at West End Harbor, and 2 at Surfside.   These are the 13 newer developments that construction started on during the boom from 2002-2005.  They total over 400 units and here are the only 10  on the market.    The North End of Cape San Blas remains extremely hot as well.  (This area has seen larger price gains in recent years than the majority of the market).  This is primarily a single family home market.  We are down to 23 single family homes available, with only 2 being under $400K.  Even Port St. Joe is seeing a nice increase in values.  For years, it wasn't seeing the increases that the beach markets were enjoying; however, that's changed in the last 12-18 months.  In the past couple of years, you could get a pretty nice single family home for under $175K in "town".  These seem to be a thing of the past and almost everything newer or remodeled under $200K has sold.  There's even very little available under $300K.  I've got a number of people that have made an appointment to look at property one day on their summer vacation.  They picked 5 or 6 properties they wanted to watch and look at when they are here.  Almost every home that was picked as a good deal a few months ago has sold or gone under contract.  The number of beachfront homes and quality beach front lots is also getting very low and is seeing price increases.  There are only 4 single family beachfront homes left on the market from Mexico Beach to St. Joe Beach and 2 lots.  There are only 9 single beach front homes on the market along the 7 mile stretch of beach on North Cape San Blas. WindMark Beach seems to be the only waterfront lots not yet seeing price increases.  There are bayfront/beachfront lots starting at $195,000 with 9 to choose from.      There are still some good deals, but the number of competitively priced homes is getting very low.  The overall number of properties on the market has only decreased slightly from 590 in January to 560 now, but many of the new listings are people testing the market to see how much buyers in 2015 are willing to pay.  Vacant lots haven't increased as much and continue to fuel a building boom of single family homes.  I've had a couple people ask if all the press about Spring Break in Panama City negatively affects us.  Absolutely not, the bad press from Panama City and large crowds in Destin continue to drive more people to our laid back, family friendly beaches.      Normally the beginning of March isn't that busy, and I thought it was a great idea when Michelle suggested having a very small wedding in the mountains.  We got married March 1st in North Carolina.   My good friend and co-worker Grant is now also officially Reverend Grant Terry and he conducted our ceremony.  We are very happy, and I appreciate all of the kind wishes.           98 Real Estate Group is growing, and I'm proud to announce the addition of our 10th agent.  Bonita Thompson has been a friend and top producing Realtor for years.  We are happy to welcome her to our team.  Bonita has proven once again she's a better fisherman than I am.  Check out this cobia she caught on Tuesday.       I also wanted to remind everyone about the Airshow that starts tomorrow at Tyndall.   Please let me know if I can help with any of your buying or selling needs.   Cheers,    Zach Childs  Broker/Owner 98 Real Estate Group 850.819.0833 zachchilds@gmail.com

2014 Market Recap and 2015 Projections - Mexico Beach to Cape San Blas, FL

2014 was the most active year in our coastal real estate market since 2005.  Momentum continues to build from a very good 2013 and solid 2012.  The market is taking advantage of an overall improvement in the US economy combined with an increase in the number people that want to vacation and live in this area.  For those of you that are new to my newsletter, I cover and give statistics for the market from Mexico Beach to Cape San/Indian Pass.  There were 606 sales in 2013 totaling $100,858,133.  Sales volume improved to 627 sales totaling $110,513,025 in 2014.  For comparison, 2008 was the slowest year since 2005 when there were only 190 sales.  Every year has gotten better since then.  There were 319 cash sales alone totalling over $45,000,000 in 2014. 

 

When it comes to homes, the Cape San Blas/Indian Pass market is seeing the highest prices while Mexico Beach/St. Joe Beach is seeing the most sales.  There were 84 homes that sold in 2014 on Cape San Blas/Indian Pass with an average price of $378,751.  Mexico Beach/St Joe Beach had 176 homes sell for an average price of $226,927 while Port St. Joe also saw an increase with 71 homes selling at an average price of $138,246. In regards to vacant lots, the Cape San Blas/Indian Pass market saw the most sales with 141 and highest prices with an average price of $128,103.  Mexico Beach/St. Joe Beach was also active with 101 lots selling for an average price of $79,237.  Port St. Joe had 41 vacant lot sales with an average price of only $18,626.  Here are links to see the lots currently on the market in each area: Mexico Beach/St. Joe Beach/WindMark, Cape San Blas/Indian Pass, and Port St. Joe.   

 

Are there still some really good deals? Yes.  If you look at price points since 2000, we are still very near the bottom of the market.  Selling prices have trended upward over the last 2-3 years, however not nearly as much as most people would think with this many sales.  One reason we haven't seen big gains is that for almost every property that has sold the last 2 years, another has been put on the market.  We started 2013 with about 725 properties for sale.  Despite over 1233 sales in the last 2 years, there are still 590 properties on the market today.  The good news for values is that we aren't seeing the numerous short sales and foreclosures that drag prices down.  We are also starting to see more sellers that won't sell until they can get a higher price than what the market has been bearing.    Numerous buyers in 2014 found that building a new home was their best option.  More single family homes were built in 2014 than any year since 2005.  There were 83 homes completed in Gulf County and another 62 homes are currently under construction.  This does not include the City of Port St. Joe which has a separate building department.  Mexico Beach had 18 homes constructed, up from 9 in 2013.   With an average selling price of a single family home breaking $400K, building has often made the most financial sense on The Cape and Indian Pass. (The $378,751 average selling price for homes referenced in the 2nd paragraph includes townhouses and condos)  The Cape, especially the North End, has been on fire with sales and construction of new single family homes.  The new construction option has held back the price increases for existing homes.  This isn't a bad thing, but buyers simply aren't going to pay $500K for a 10 year old home when they could buy a comparable lot and build the same house brand new for $400K.   The majority of buyers today are purchasing because they want to use a property now or in the future.  We've seen over the past 10 years that hundreds if not thousands of purchases from 2000-2005 were bought strictly for investment.  Many of these were foreclosed on from 2008-2012.  We've seen a 2nd wave of sellers the last 2-3 years.  It's been comprised of the owners that aren't in foreclosure or necessarily distressed, but rather sellers taking advantage of a better market to sell their investment properties.  The majority of investment/speculation purchases during the boom were for vacant lots.  This market experienced high numbers of foreclosures and a huge decline vs existing homes.  An odd phenomenon was created in parts of our market where building a brand new house became less expensive than purchasing an existing home.    On average, I feel the market went up 3-5% in 2013 and about the same in 2014.  There are certainly submarkets and neighborhoods that went up much more.  A fair number of buyers that bought 2-3 years ago have seen appreciation of 20, 30, 40% and more.  The owners seeing the largest gains are those with property near the beach where the number of properties on the market is getting low.  I was wrong with my prediction for 2014 and thought prices would go up more than they did.  I didn't predict that so many new properties would come on the market.  Inventory is finally starting to go down.  Especially inventory that is priced competitively compared to similar properties that have sold.  I'm having trouble finding buyers for certain types of properties at this point.  These buyers are willing to pay full current appraisal value and can't find sellers willing to sell for these amounts.  I've written letters over the last 6 months to many property owners that don't have their property on the market to see if they want to sell.  Very few have been interested in selling.  Those with an interest in selling have told me that they won't sell unless there's a big increase in prices.  If you are potentially interested in selling, I'd be happy to give you a free, no obligation evaluation of your property.     I began my real estate career about the exact time coastal real estate values started falling in late 2005.  The market didn't make sense, and I was in for a rough start.  By the end of 2006, I'd sold a whopping 2 properties.  I'm entering my 11th year of selling real estate in a place that I love to live.  I have been very fortunate to learn from and meet a lot of great people.  It's safe to say that my past 2 years were much better than my first two.  I have sold over 135 properties since 2013 and it's been considerably more fun with prices going up instead of down.  I  was able to beat over 200 Realtors in 2013 and finish as the top producing agent on our MLS.  I had another great year and ended up 3rd in 2014 with the title going back to a St. George Island based agent.  98 Real Estate Group is entering its 5th year in business, and we have closed over 375 transactions totaling over $80 million.  We have established a strong presence as one of the top producing companies in the area.    Everything points to prices continuing to rise in 2015.  In my opinion, the 2 keys to seeing larger price increases throughout the market in 2015 will be to see a decline in the overall number of properties on the market and an increase in vacant lot prices.  If the lower priced properties on the market sell between now and Spring, buyers will be paying 10-15% more this Summer for a property near the beach than they did last year.  If you're in the market to buy, I would have a sense of urgency to purchase before Memorial Day.  If you're an owner considering selling, there's a good chance you'll be able to sell for 10% more in 2016 and holding might be your best option.  2015 should certainly be an exciting year, and I'd love to help with any of your buying or selling needs.    The following is a list of some fun upcoming events:    Gulf County Chamber Annual Dinner - January 29 Junior Service League Gala - February 7 Mexico Beach Gumbo Cookoff - February 21 St. George Island Chili Cookoff - March 7 Lions Club Sportsman Banquet - March 12   I hope to see you at some of these.    Happy New Year,   Zach Childs  Broker/Owner 98 Real Estate Group 850.819.0833 zachchilds@gmail.com

Happy Holidays from 98 Real Estate Group

Greetings Friends,

 

We'd like to take a moment and wish everyone a Merry Christmas.  It's been another fantastic year at 98 Real Estate Group.   We've barely had time to catch our breath and greatly appreciate the opportunity to work with so many wonderful people. 

 

The market continues to improve with many new buyers deciding to join us in our little paradise.  There have been over 1,300 properties sell in Gulf County and Mexico Beach since 2013.  This easily makes 2013 and 2014 the two most active years in the real estate market since 2004 and 2005.  Prices are continuing to trend upward there are some positive developments that could become a reality in 2015.  We are finishing out the year strong with 2 closings today and another scheduled for Monday.      I will send out a detailed recap of 2014 and give my projections for 2015 in a January newsletter.     Cheers,   Zach Childs

Summer Market Recap - Mexico Beach to Cape San Blas, FL- September 2014

It has been a great Summer at the beach.  Tourism numbers are up again and most businesses have had their best Summer ever.  The weather overall was very pleasant, and many new visitors have fallen in love with our area.  Real Estate continues to improve along the coast and prices are slowly rising on most property values.  The number of sales is now at the highest pace of any year since 2005.  In the first 8 months of 2013, there were 412 sales totaling $67,387,783.  For the same period in 2014, there have been 415 sales totaling $70,036,120.  There are also an additional 83 properties under contract as of 9/3/14. I've been extremely busy and am having a great year.  Lots of people decided it was time to buy and I have sold 20 properties since July 15th.

 

Many property owners are continuing to take advantage of the improved conditions and are placing their properties on the market.  Despite 415 properties already selling and another 83 properties currently being under contract, the number of properties on the market has increased from approximately 615 at the beginning of the year to about 690 at this time.  This new supply of properties is great news for buyers but is the main reason we've only seen moderate price gains.  This is certainly frustrating some owners/sellers that are hoping for bigger and faster price increases.   Cape San Blas and Mexico Beach remain the two hottest markets.  The Mexico Beach/St. Joe Beach market has seen the most sales with 184 closings totaling $29,868,485.  Cape San Blas/Indian Pass has seen the most money invested by buyers with 162 sales totaling $33,367,190.  The Cape is seeing a number of high end sales with the average home selling for $366,912 and the average lot for $123,242.  $366,912 is way up from the $282,134 average for the same time period in 2013.  This segment of our market is seeing the strongest recovery of prices, but it did see some of the biggest decreases from 2005 prices as well.  Even at the higher selling prices, most of these properties on the Cape are still selling for well less than half of what they sold for in 2005.  Buyers are considering these great values and have been taking advantage of the prices.  The Mexico Beach to WindMark market has seen an average home price of $218,482 and average lot prices of $59,253.  Port St. Joe remains our most affordable market with the average selling price for houses at $135,321 and lots at only $23,997.  The "North" End of Cape San Blas has probably seen the most appreciation over the last 2-3 years.  The average selling price for a single family home this year is currently $406,840.  Most of the properties in Mexico Beach have also seen a nice gain in value over the last 2-3 years.  The zoning in Beacon Hill and St. Joe Beach that allows RV's and mobile homes has been very popular, but it has also kept the average home prices down compared to Mexico Beach where this is no longer allowed.   Properties seeing the most appreciation are those close to the beach with reasonable insurance(X-flood zone preferably) that are newer or in good condition and with the potential to bring in high rental returns.    What are my favorite deals on the market? The Top 25 Homes and Top 15  Lots were updated today for the Mexico Beach to WindMark Market.  Here are what I think are the best deals on houses  and vacant lots in Port St. Joe.   Here are the houses, condos and townhouses and the vacant lots on the market in the Cape San Blas/Indian Pass area that I think are the best deals.  Everybody always wants to know what foreclosures are on the market.  Here are the 4 homes and the 24 lots.  We've gotten great National press this year for Cape San Blas and Mexico Beach.  A recent CBS Money Watch Article named both Cape San Blas and Mexico Beach as Top 10 Vacation Hotspots.

 

The relocation of the lighthouse from Cape San Blas to Port St. Joe has been a big headline this Summer.  It is certainly an asset for the Port St. Joe community and is a cool site that you can see when you enter town from the Cape or the Mexico Beach direction. The local Port St. Joe economy is improving and the addition of the lighthouse is already helping to generate more interest and business in the town.       The 18th Annual Scallop and Music Festival is scheduled for September 12th and 13th.  It's being held at George Core Park where the lighthouse is now located. Friday night will be highlighted with the unique musical soundings of Dread Clampitt. Saturday night features a compact duo of Tobacco Road followed by Joe Diffie taking the stage at 9:00 pm.  I'm one of the volunteers for this event and might see you there if you make it to this fun event.    Cheers,    Zach Childs Broker/Owner 98 Real Estate Group 850.819.0833 zachchilds@gmail.com