Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Mexico Beach to Cape San Blas FL 2023 Market Recap and Looking to 2024

 

Despite some headwinds, 2023 was another positive year for home sales and values. Interest rates were close to 8% last summer and insurance and taxes are more and more expensive, but the popularity of the area offset the negatives, and home values saw additional increases in 2023. National and even local projections pointed to either a flat housing market or slight declines for last year and demand instead remained strong enough that we saw a solid year for property values. Overall, fewer properties were sold than in the previous 3 years, but those that sold averaged higher values.


I wasn’t predicting a great year for real estate sales and was more than pleasantly surprised that 98 Real Estate Group had it’s best year ever selling $103 million. I’m even prouder that we finished as the top sales company from Mexico Beach to WindMark Beach for the 11th year in a row! We finished #1 as well in the North Gulf County area. We also did well in the Port St. Joe and Cape San Blas market. We have a strong group of 18 agents with 6 selling $9 million or more in 2023.  We ended up #2 overall on MLS which covers from Mexico Beach all the way through Franklin County. National real estate forecasts are much rosier for '24 than they were for '23. Average rates on a 30 year mortgage have dropped from around 8% in October to the 6.7% range which has put some buyers back in the market. There seems to also be a large number of buyers watching and planning to jump back in if rates get cut in '24 as the FED currently forecasts. Between New Years and late February is typically the slowest time of the year for real estate sales and there are still 81 properties under contract right now.   

Homes


2019

2020

2021

2022

2023


MB-SJB-WMB


$270,806


$350,534


$453,062


$591,665


$610, 606

Port St Joe

$184,614

$222,262

$297,116

$341,465

$374,217


CSB-IP


$601,725


$658,264


$870,295


$1,118,250


$1,129,083

Available housing inventory is up slightly compared to this time last year. There are currently 229 homes on the market from Mexico Beach to Cape San Blas vs 195 a year ago. With 492 recorded home sales on MLS for these markets in 2023, 229 available is still moderately low and considered less than a 6 month supply. Cash buyers were still a big part of the market with 186 of the 492 or (37%) of home buyers paying cash . A whopping 72% or 164 out of 228 vacant land purchasers paid cash. Vacant lot loans are usually at higher rates than home mortgages and 9+ % loans for vacant lots weren’t really popular as we predicted for '23. There are 210 vacant lots listed. Overall vacant land prices did go up, but it wasn’t as significant as housing prices. Interior lots in the beaches area with no water view did seem to go down in the beaches area, and most with gulf view lots did not. Supply and demand is the explanation here with far more interior lots for sale than there are of the more premium lots. Take Mexico Beach to St. Joe Beach for example, there are 62 single family lots for sale. 5 are gulf front, about another 10 have some kind of view and then that leaves 47 interior lots. In 2023, the average days on market for vacant lots from MB to Cape San Blas was 96 days. Final sales prices averaged 92% of original list prices. Homes averaged 87 days on market with sales prices being slightly over 96% of their starting list prices.

Lots


2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

MB- SJB-WMB

$175,137

$159,968

$228,866

$278,205

$274,272

Port St Joe

$60,251

$87,468

$110,658

$116,065

$146,164

CSB -IP

$201,053

$174,542

$191,655

$282,264

$302,033

Mix in 7 commercial sales and the year ended with 727 sales for '23 compared to 912 in '22. The stats back up the feeling here on the ground that we felt since last summer. It was a little slower than the year before, but busy enough and values were still going up slightly. We didn’t see the big increases and borderline crazy numbers of buyers that we saw during the Covid boom that was also fueled by sub 3% rates and led to 1328 sales in '21. 2023 was more like the normal year with a slight price increase that we saw for the 5 years before Hurricane Michael.

Mexico Beach to WindMark- The housing market and desire to be in Mexico Beach remains extremely strong. There are new high end houses being built all over the place. The lack of restaurants and amenities like a grocery store remains a negative. The only commercial building built in '23 was Bracewell Flooring which was built in the old civic center location. The former Bracewell Flooring building located at 4101 Hwy 98 has been undergoing renovations and is set to open in the next month or two as Forgotten Coast Brewing Company. This will be a full restaurant that also brews its own beer. I spoke with the Toucan’s owners last week, and they are getting ready to start construction to meet an April deadline that is required to take advantage of being grandfathered into their previous footprint.  There are still lots of buyers believing in the future of Mexico Beach and prices have continued to rise. WindMark has been a bright spot in regard to commercial development with 9 businesses plus a church now operating out of the Town Center. The View Restaurant is under new ownership and management and has been fantastic. You’ve also got the popular Bruno’s PizzaThe Mill Mercantile and Social (a cool bar and candy shop on the other side). and a newly opened Sunrise Cafe.


I’m working hard to try and bring some restaurants to these areas. I helped get an ordinance changed this month in Gulf County where I’m on the Planning and Zoning Board. Mexico Beach also listened to suggestions and changed an ordinance in '22 to try and make it more feasible to build a restaurant. In doing some research for a presentation I made to Mexico Beach City Council last week, I realized that the last built restaurant in Mexico Beach was the former Sharon’s CafĂ©, which was built 36 years ago. I hope 2024 is the year this trend changes, and the balance of commercial and residential starts to improve. Here is a link to the 102 houses for sale and 79 vacant lots in Mexico Beach to WindMark Beach area.

Port St Joe - This market remains very popular and sees the most purchases for primary residences. The commercial scene is thriving with 20 plus restaurants on or within 2 blocks of Reid Ave. DR Horton purchased Truland Homebuilding last year, and Horton remains bullish on the area. The population is growing due that the homes they are building in Phase II of WindMark Beach combined with their new subdivisions in Port St. Joe. It’s not cheap, but $374K for an average home is a relatively low price for a coastal home in a family friendly town with great schools in the state of Florida. Here is a link to the 44 houses and 30 vacant lots for sale in Port St. Joe.


North Gulf County/Wewahitchka remains far more affordable with average home prices under $200K. We have been the top company in this market for the last 7 years, mainly due to having Miranda Rollins working with us. She has been the top individual agent for this market and is who I can highly recommend. We have held that spot, mainly due to Miranda Rollins, since 2017. Home sale prices for this market still averaged under $200K counting mobile homes with solid single family home options starting in the $250K range.

Cape San Blas to Indian Pass - This is a hot 2nd home market that continues to increase in popularity and is becoming a more and more popular alternative to the crowded areas like Destin and 30A. This area is mostly single family homes, and the North Cape remains most popular with the average single family home selling for $1,438,988 with only 42 days on market in '23. This whole area through Indian Pass is a hot market and averages significantly higher values than Port St. Joe and Mexico Beach. (If you compare apples to apples, values are similar to Mexico Beach. Mexico Beach also has a number of interior properties including townhouses, condos, and mobile homes that don't exist as much on the cape and this brings the averages down). Here's a link to the 83 houses for sale and 100 vacant lots in the Cape San Blas area.  

How are rentals performing?  I've talked with 3 large property management companies, and 2 of them are up on '24 bookings compared to this time last year, and one is flat. Many new properties have come on the rental market in recent years creating more competition. I'm being told the higher end properties with less competition are renting better than interior homes/condos. As one said, it's easier to rent a $12K/week beachfront single family with a pool than a $2K/week condo right now. Rental rates increased in '21 and '22 as much as home prices. With so much new competition, homes had to stand out to do as well last year as the previous year. (Keep in mind with the stats below that Michael hit in 2018 and MB had 760 rentals before the hurricane.) While there aren't as many homes as pre-hurricane in Mexico Beach, there are more vacationers than ever as the new homes are much larger than those destroyed. 2023 saw all time high bed tax collections in both Gulf County and Mexico Beach.

Number of Rental Homes


2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Gulf County


1348


1395


1450


1570


1680

Mexico Beach


132


183


366


466


641

Total

1,480

1,578

1,816

2,036

2,321

Bed Tax Collection


2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Gulf County


$1,754,261


$2,326,707


$3,931,027


$4,474,146


$4,742,396

Mexico Beach


$33,559


$128,238


$433,205


$620,989


$808,382

Total

$1,787,820

$2,454,945

$4,364,232

$5,095,135

$5,550,778

The family is doing great. The boys are 3 and 6 and full of life. We celebrated my parent's 50th anniversary, and my father-in laws 70th birthday earlier this year in the pic below. Life's getting busier, and busier, and I'm enjoying coaching them in soccer, basketball and t-ball.

It's Cookoff/fundraising season, and we enjoyed competing in the Chilli Cookoff in Port St. Joe last weekend. We are looking forward to competing in the Mexico Beach Gumbo Festival on February 17th.

Cheers,



Zach Childs

Broker/Owner 98 Real Estate Group

#1 Producing Real Estate Company Located in Mexico Beach

Eleven Years in a Row and Counting

Voted #1 Agent on The Forgotten Coast- 2013 and 2015

Cell: 850-819-0833

Fax: 888-382-9608

WWW.MEXICOBEACHSALES.COM

WWW.98RealEstateGroup.com

101 S. 33rd Street
Mexico Beach, FL 32456
Phone (850) 819-0833
Email zach
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Thursday, July 06, 2023

Mid Year Market Recap - Mexico Beach to Cape San Blas

 

The real estate market remains steady and fairly strong and active halfway through 2023. Average home prices continue to tick up in a year that many experts called for declines. I think the popularity of our area is helping to offset overall negatives in the economy and high interest rates. More and more people want to own a piece of our paradise. Home sellers didn’t have to negotiate much with 258 sellers selling for an average of 97% of their list price and averaging 90 days on market. I don’t believe the Cape and Indian Pass prices have gone down on homes. The averages are down in my opinion because there have been very few high end homes on the market this year vs last year. Below are average selling prices of homes for the first half of 2023 and here are the additional 65 homes that are under contract. That’s a healthy number of contracts on homes for our area. I made the highest sale ever for a home from Mexico Beach to WindMark Beach in May when my listing closed for $2,650,000. I broke that record a month later closing on the home next door for $2,900,000. A home that Steve Newman built, that we listed and sold last spring on Cape Sand Blas for $3,450,000, is still the all-time high residential sale for Gulf County and Mexico Beach. 

Homes


2019

2020

2021

2022

2Q 2023


MB-SJB-WMB


$270,806


$350,534


$453,062


$591,665


$596,390

Port St Joe

$184,614

$222,262

$297,116

$341,465

$354,847


CSB-IP


$601,725


$658,264


$870,295


$1,118,250


$993,105

Vacant land demand has felt slower than home demand. I think the cost of building, when combined with wait times for contractors, makes buying a home more practical than a vacant lot for most people. Some exceptions are those looking to build years out in the future, those looking strictly for an investment, and those buying lots that are zoned for RV’s. We also see very few beachfront single family and higher end gulf view homes come up for sale. Many people looking for these types of properties have realized they’ll need to build to get what they want. Lot sellers had to negotiate more than home sellers with 108 lots selling for an average of 92% of list price and 91 days on market. There are lots that have sold for less than would have in spring/summer of '22. I do believe values have slipped a little on vacant lots in the Mexico Beach and Cape San Blas/Indian Pass markets over the last year. The Port St. Joe market has had so few lots for sale and is seeing so much demand and activity from full time residents that it’s probably avoided the decline in values. All markets are still up significantly over the last few years and there's only been a slight reduction in values on some lots. The average prices below are also lower than they would be comparing apples to apples because of a much smaller number of higher end/beachfront lots being on the market or selling in '23 vs '22. There are 28 lots under contract. I'd like to see this number a little higher considering there are 226 lots on the market.

Lots


2019

2020

2021

2022

2Q 2023

MB- SJB-WMB

$175,137

$159,968

$228,866

$278,205

$244,818

Port St Joe

$60,251

$87,468

$110,658

$116,065

$137,500

CSB -IP

$201,053

$174,542

$191,655

$282.264

$272,188

The number of homes selling is still on the high side. It’s kind of crazy that more homes sold from Mexico Beach to WindMark this year than in the feverish market we had in Spring of 21. The ’23 sold vacant lot volume numbers aren’t bad overall, just not crazy on lots like in ’21 when 444 vacant lots sold vs 108 in the first half of this year.  

Homes .........................Number of Sales........................Lots


MB - WMB

PSJ

CSB


MB- WMB

PSJ

CSB

2021 1Q-2Q

137

62

127

2021 1-Q-2Q

173

49

222

2022 1Q-2Q

127

72

90

2022 1Q-2Q

94

32

111

2023 1Q-2Q

140

59

60

2023 1Q-2Q

44

20

44

Inventory levels have remained pretty consistent through this year with some markets up slightly and some down. We’ve got more listed than we did during the historically low inventory of '21 and '22, but these are still low levels. All markets still have less listed than we did in a pre-Michael market. You can click on the 2023 blue hyperlinks and see what is listed today. The MB/WindMark market is a little over inflated with 30 of the 95 homes being DR Horton homes in WindMark. (DR Horton also recently bought out Truland and are very optimistic about the future of this area)  

Homes.................. Active Inventory - as of April 1.................. Lots


MB-WMB

PSJ

CSB


MB- WMB

PSJ

CSB

7/1/18

119

46

84

7/1/18

112

99

209

7/1/21

22

30

21

7/1/21

55

31

90

7/1/22

89

31

54

7/1/22

83

29

90

2023 1/1

125

34

35

2023 1/1

85

29

88

2023 7/1

95

37

49

2023 7/1

101

26

99

There are large crowds of visitors here this summer. I’ve heard many “locals” say this is the busiest they’ve every seen Port St. Joe, and I’d agree with this statement. The area is thriving, though there are some vacation rental properties not doing as well as they did last year. I believe that while we are attracting more people, there are far more properties on the rental market than there were last year. People aren’t spending money out of control like they were on vacations in the post-Covid boom as well. You can’t just put any old property on the rental market at about any price and expect it to fill up like it would in '21 and '22. You’ve got to stand out this year and be priced accordingly. There are neighborhoods adding huge amounts of new rentals like WindMark and Villa Del Sol on a smaller scale. We’ve also had large numbers of individual custom rental homes being built that have come on the rental market as well as The El Governor MotelDriftwood Inn, and Gulf View Motel opening back up in Mexico Beach. Mexico Beach was decimated by Michael in 2018, and there weren’t many rentals on the market for a few years. If you had a rental, you did great in large part due to lack of competition. This market went from 700 rentals in 2018 to 133 in 2019. It was back up to 459 last year and is now up to 617. Gulf County added a few hundred more rentals as well, and there are far more vacation rentals there than there has ever been. Retail and restaurant owners are all telling me they are either having their best year ever or very close to it. The overall local economy remains strong and is enjoying all of the visitors.

  

The El Governor Hotel with 100 plus rooms in Mexico Beach has opened since my newsletter and just last week the first set of 200 apartments on the west end of Mexico Beach has opened. These apartments are the largest commercial project ever built in Mexico Beach, and this property owned by The St. Joe Company will be long term/full time rentals only. The facilities look nice, but they aren’t cheap with one bedrooms starting around $1,550 per month. Commercial businesses in Mexico Beach have greatly lagged the residential rebuild, and we’re still at one sit down restaurant and no grocery store. In the land of food trucks, our office has a new favorite and suggest giving Bad Mamma Jamma’s a try. These properties placed on the market last week could end up being the commercial future of Mexico Beach.

98 Real Estate Group helped put on the Gollywhopper fishing tournament again this year in Mexico Beach. We had a record turnout with 95 boats, and some great fish were caught. I was able to go fishing this past weekend, and here’s a nice red snapper that Hudson helped reel in. 


98 Real Estate Group is having another tremendous year. We have 19 agents that cover anything you can think of in Gulf County or Mexico Beach. The end of 2022 was pretty slow with some ugly forecasts for real estate in 2023. I'm happy to safely report a strong market with new buyers constantly wanting a place here. We sold over $50 million in the first half of this year and we're on track for our best, or at least 2nd best year ever. We should close out as the top producing brokerage for the Mexico Beach to WindMark market for the 11th year in a row. Thank you all for your support. Life is good. My family is looking forward to being tourists this weekend and staying at Black’s Island.

Cheers,



Zach Childs

Broker/Owner 98 Real Estate Group

#1 Producing Real Estate Company Located in Mexico Beach

Ten Years in a Row and Counting

Voted #1 Agent on The Forgotten Coast- 2013 and 2015

Cell: 850-819-0833

Fax: 888-382-9608

WWW.MEXICOBEACHSALES.COM

WWW.98RealEstateGroup.com

101 S. 33rd Street
Mexico Beach, FL 32456
Phone (850) 819-0833
Email zach
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